Weekly policy watch: Retail inflation, WPI and forex reserves in focus

India’s economic calendar this week will focus on retail and wholesale inflation data and the country’s external financial position.

The government will release retail inflation data for September on October 12. India’s retail inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose to 4.82 per cent in August from 4.45 per cent in July, according to provisional data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).

Inflation increased in both rural and urban areas. Rural inflation rose to 5.23 per cent in August from 4.84 per cent in July, while urban inflation increased to 4.31 per cent from 3.96 per cent. Food prices remained a key source of pressure. Food inflation, measured by the Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI), climbed to 5.95 per cent in August from 5.52 per cent in July. Rural food inflation stood at 6.13 per cent, while urban food inflation was 5.64 per cent.

WPI inflation data on October 14

Wholesale price inflation data for September will be released on October 14. India’s WPI-based inflation rose to 9.92 per cent in August from 9.78 per cent in July, according to data released by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry. .

The All Commodities WPI increased to 110.8 in August from 110 in July. Price trends varied across the three main groups. Inflation in primary articles eased to 7.76 per cent in August from 8.52 per cent in July. However, fuel and power inflation rose to 22.93 per cent from 20.05 per cent, while inflation in manufactured products edged up to 8.37 per cent from 8.29 per cent.

Forex reserves data on October 16

India’s forex reserves fell by $12.95 billion to $734.6 billion in the week ended October 2, marking their fourth consecutive weekly decline. The fall came amid pressure on the rupee and higher crude oil prices, with the RBI selling dollars to help contain the currency’s weakness.

Reserves have declined by $51.1 billion since reaching a record $785.7 billion in the week ended September 4. Foreign currency assets, the largest component of reserves, fell by $10.7 billion to $604.7 billion in the week ended October 2. Gold reserves declined by $2.3 billion to $106.4 billion.

Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) rose by $15 million to $18.7 billion, while India’s reserve position with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) fell by $15 million to $4.8 billion. Despite the recent decline, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said last week that India’s reserves provided import cover of about 11 months and were equivalent to 94.4 per cent of the country’s external debt.

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