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Russia continues to be the largest source of crude oil for India in September so far, nearly maintaining last month’s crude supply volumes, despite the recent escalation in the US-Iran conflict that has further constrained the flow of crude via the Red Sea route.
Russia’s continued dominance also comes against the backdrop of the recent approval of the Russia Sanctions Bill, which clears the way for the imposition of a 100 per cent tariff on India and other buyers of Russian energy by US President Trump.
India imported 5.251 million barrels per day (mbpd) of crude in the current month till September 27, a 13 per cent jump over 4.654 mbpd imported in the whole of last month, August 2026, according to fresh data sourced from maritime intelligence and research firm Kpler.
Among the top five suppliers of India’s crude in September, Russia supplied 1,742 thousand barrels per day (tbpd), followed by Iraq’s 579 tbpd, Saudi Arabia’s 570 tbpd, the UAE’s 483 tbpd and Kuwait’s 333 tbpd.
Last month, the top five crude suppliers included Russia, with volumes of 2,090 tbpd, followed by Saudi Arabia’s 347 tbpd, Iraq’s 163 tbpd, the UAE’s 546 tbpd and the US’ 109 tbpd.
Going forward, experts do not expect Indian refiners to significantly reduce imports of Russian Urals crude in the near term, at least until physical barrel availability improves. India has already clarified its stance that energy security remains paramount.
“In the current market, physical crude balances are tight, particularly for medium grade barrels, which remain an important part of the feedstock mix for Indian refiners given the country’s middle distillate heavy product slate,” said Nikhil Dubey, lead analyst – refining at Kpler.
However, the key consideration for refiners will be to maintain flexibility in crude sourcing while ensuring security of supply, and with availability from West Asia also constrained by the current conflict, replacing Russian barrels would be challenging.
“Once crude supplies stabilise and Middle Eastern availability improves, Indian refiners are likely to naturally tilt more towards West Asian barrels given their proximity, lower freight costs and suitability for the domestic product mix,” Dubey said.
According to Prashant Vasisht, senior vice-president and co-group head, corporate sector ratings, at ratings agency Icra, even if India reduces Russian oil imports by 20-30 per cent, it will still be importing a large volume from Russia.
“That is not enough for the US to not impose sanctions for purchase of Russian energy. Besides, replacing supply of around 2 million barrels from Russia is very difficult currently because supplies from Saudi Arabia are also impacted,” he told Business Standard.
Vasisht also added that the Indian government cannot risk fuel shortages in the country, and so the government will either negotiate or bear the tariffs, but likely continue Russian oil purchases. “The global crude supply situation is not allowing India to cut down oil imports from Russia in the foreseeable future,” he said.
Meanwhile, Brent crude oil surged more than 2 per cent to $107 per barrel on Monday after US President Trump rejected a peace deal from Iran to resolve their conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Since the beginning of the US-Iran conflict at the end of February 2026, Brent crude has risen 50 per cent from $71 per barrel.
Speaking at an industry event last week in Delhi, Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas Hardeep Singh Puri had said the ongoing West Asia crisis has the potential to exacerbate as tensions between the US and Iran have escalated in recent weeks, and while India has successfully navigated the crisis so far, the escalating conflict might pose challenges going forward.
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