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India’s crude oil imports from Russia are expected to be around 2.1 million barrels per day (mbpd) in August, down sharply from the record levels of around 2.6 mbpd seen in June and July this year, fresh data from maritime intelligence and research firm Kpler showed.
Despite the decline in August, Russia remains India’s largest crude supplier, accounting for more than 40 per cent of India’s crude imports, followed by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) at 611 thousand barrels per day (kbpd), Saudi Arabia at 385 kbpd, Venezuela at 383 kbpd, Nigeria at 129 kbpd, and Brazil at 120 kbpd.
“The decline does not reflect weakening Indian appetite for Russian crude. It reflects a combination of refinery maintenance, some normalisation after very strong crude buying in recent months, lower Russian export availability and increasing competition from China,” said Sumit Ritolia, senior manager, modelling, at Kpler.
In July 2026, too, Russia was the largest supplier of crude to India at 2.6 mbpd, followed by the UAE at 470 kbpd, Saudi Arabia at 390 kbpd, Venezuela at 218 kbpd, and Oman supplying 202 kbpd of crude.
August data also shows that the shift of India’s energy imports towards the US has broadly continued over the past few months, particularly for LPG. The change is largely driven by constrained West Asian availability and the need for Indian buyers to diversify and secure replacement cargoes.
Experts say that there is a clear additional cost associated with replacing nearby West Asian supply with cargoes from the US and other more distant origins. Also, freight is higher because of the significantly longer voyage, while tighter global availability has also raised the underlying commodity cost.
“However, I would not attribute the entire increase in India’s LNG or LPG import bill to the shift towards US supplies. The increase reflects a combination of higher international prices, tighter West Asian availability, freight and insurance costs, and longer supply routes. In the current environment, India is effectively paying a premium for supply security and diversification,” Ritolia said.
He also said the latest round of heavy sanctions by the US on Iran is unlikely to have a material impact as India’s direct exposure to Iranian crude is currently very limited. India has not imported any meaningful quantity of crude from Iran in the past five years, and experts believe India’s bigger exposure comes from second-order effects, particularly through China.
“If China, which imports the vast majority of Iranian crude, is forced to source oil elsewhere, it will increase competition for the alternative barrels that India relies on. This demand reshuffling would likely push benchmark prices higher, resulting in a higher import bill for India,” Ritolia said.
India’s vulnerability regarding Iranian supplies historically relates more to LPG supply balances and freight and insurance friction through the region rather than crude volumes.
However, the renewed escalation in the Iran conflict presents a significant macroeconomic risk for India, primarily through higher energy prices rather than an immediate shortage of crude. India imports 90 per cent of its crude requirement, and a sustained rise in oil prices could widen the import bill and push up inflation through freight rates.
“We have seen Russian crude trading at premiums now. The consequences would extend well beyond refinery economics. Russian crude has become the backbone of India’s energy security, allowing refiners to sustain high utilisation rates while reducing dependence on Hormuz-transited supplies,” Ritolia said.
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