India’s consumer durables market to touch ₹3-3.25 trillion by 2030 | Economy & Policy News

India’s consumer durables market is expected to witness significant growth to touch ₹3-3.25 lakh crore by 2030, creating an additional ₹40,000-50,000 crore opportunity for domestic value addition across materials and component manufacturing, a joint report by Boston Consulting Group (BCG) and industry body CII said.

The report said India is expected to remain one of the world’s fastest-growing consumer durables markets over the next five years, driven by rising household penetration, growing nuclearisation of families, higher incomes, easier financing, wider distribution and increasing premiumisation.

In comparison, China, the world’s largest market, is expected to grow at 1-2 per cent annually through 2030, while the US is projected to expand by 3 per cent and Japan by 1-3 per cent, according to the report.

“India is set to remain the fastest-growing major consumer durables market, growing 8-10 per cent annually till 2030 and reach $30-35 billion by 2030, with Room Airconditioner growth leading the market,” the report said.

However, the report cautioned that a significant portion of this opportunity could continue to be met through imports unless domestic component and material capacities are scaled up.

According to the report, localisation of bill of materials (BOM) currently ranges between 25 per cent and 70 per cent across categories, with televisions and air conditioners at the lower end and refrigerators and washing machines at the higher end.

This is estimated to rise to 30-80 per cent by 2030 as domestic component and material capacities are built up.

The report identified TV display panels, RAC compressors, refrigerator insulation and washing machine motors as key components where the localisation gap persists.

“As domestic component and material capacity ramps up, localisation is estimated to rise to 3080 per cent by 2030,” it said, adding “Technology partnerships and joint ventures will be required in areas where know-how is concentrated among a few global suppliers, while cluster-led manufacturing can help address scale and cost disadvantages.” Moreover, the report highlighted that global consumer durables export is expected to touch $900-950 billion by 2030, but India’s share of global trade remains below 1 per cent.

Although durable’s exports are growing, they remain concentrated in neighbouring markets and regions such as SAARC countries and the UAE, with limited presence in major global import markets, it added.

“India faces a material cost disadvantage vs leading exporters, driven by scale, backward integration, technology & policy support gaps, and compounded by limited testing, certification & compliance infrastructure,” it said.

It cited Thailand as an example of a coordinated export ecosystem, noting that the country’s share of global air conditioner exports rose from 16 per cent to 22 per cent between 2010 and 2025, making it the world’s second-largest AC exporter.

The report called for India to build a similar export ecosystem, including manufacturing clusters linked to component ecosystems, support for joint ventures and technology acquisition, shared testing and certification infrastructure, and lower financing costs.

“India will need a similarly coordinated export ecosystem to close its competitiveness gap, building on existing measures such as duty remission, zero-duty capital-goods imports and export-credit support. This should bring together export-oriented manufacturing clusters linked to component ecosystems, support for JVs and technology acquisition, shared ancillary services like testing, certification facilities, lower financing costs and stronger access to priority markets,” it said.

Besides, it also pointed out that India’s top listed durables players invest less than 1 per cent of revenue in research and development, compared with 1-4 per cent for global peers, which limits the shift from manufacturing scale to technology leadership.

“Closing this gap requires support targeted at innovation, not just building capacity,” it said.

On technology adoption, it said Indian business leaders are more optimistic about the returns from artificial intelligence than their global counterparts, but workforce readiness remains limited.

The report said generative AI and agentic AI technologies could improve efficiency across manufacturing, supply chains, product development and customer service, helping companies enhance competitiveness and support export growth.