Farm growth post-2015 more broad-based, technology-driven: Report | Agriculture

India’s farm sector growth post-2015 has transcended the levels seen immediately after the Green Revolution, largely due to technological innovations and a growing emphasis on sustainability, making it more broad-based than in the past, according to a new paper published in the latest edition of The Indian Journal of Agricultural Sciences (IJAS).

The paper said that sustaining this post-2015 average growth of 4.5 per cent in the coming years will require gradually realigning Green Revolution-era incentives — particularly input subsidies and price support — with the emerging priorities of resource conservation, climate resilience and sustainability, while enhancing agricultural productivity, food security and farmers’ incomes.

The paper, written by Dr Mangi Lal Jat, Director General, Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR); Pratap Singh Birthal, Distinguished Fellow, Research and Information System for Developing Countries (RIS); and Sedithippa Janarthanan Balaji, Professor, Institute of Economic Growth (IEG), titled ‘Beyond the Green Revolution: Unravelling new dynamics of India’s agrifood system transformation’, divided the country’s agrifood system journey since the Green Revolution into three distinct phases.

In the first phase, from 1967-1995, agricultural growth was driven by technology-led cereal intensification, the paper said; from 1996-2014, it was driven by demand-led diversification; and from 2015 onwards, it has been driven by sustainability-led diversification.

The paper examined the pace of structural transformation of the agrifood system across these phases and identified the factors driving the transformation.

“The findings show that agricultural growth, which remained at approximately 3 per cent during the first two phases (1967-1995) and (1996-2014), accelerated to approximately 4.5 per cent in the most recent phase (2015 onwards). The composition of growth also changed markedly: cereals dominated the initial phase, horticulture and livestock gained prominence in the second phase, and since 2015, growth has become more broad-based across major commodities, fuelled by technological innovations and growing policy emphasis on sustainability and resilience,” it said.

The paper said that although the Green Revolution ensured India’s food security, its unintended consequences on natural resources and the environment soon became apparent.

“The persistence of incentives, particularly subsidies for fertilisers and electricity for groundwater pumping and the procurement of rice and wheat at MSPs, encouraged the expansion of rice and wheat cultivation at the expense of nutrient-rich crops, especially millets, pulses, and oilseeds, while constraining diversification towards higher-value cropping,” the paper said.

For the period from 2015 onwards, when growth averaged more than 4.5 per cent, the paper said diversification remained an important source of agricultural growth; however, growing environmental and resource pressures associated with cereal intensification necessitated broadening the agricultural policy framework.

Fish and poultry production expanded rapidly.

Notably, foodgrain production also experienced an accelerated annual increase of around 8.4 million tonnes, primarily due to significant improvements in rice and wheat yields.

The annual growth rate of rice yield increased from 1.6 per cent during 1996-2014 to 2.1 per cent during 2015-2024; that of wheat increased from 1.1 per cent to 2.0 per cent, and maize from 2.7 per cent to 3.4 per cent.

“Unlike the preceding phase, agricultural growth during this phase (post 2015 onwards) resulted from both accelerated growths in cereal yield and the rapid expansion of high-value agriculture, making agricultural growth more broad-based,” the paper said.