Signs of global slowdown: Export credit demand shrinks 25% YoY in October

The credit demand from Indian exporters shrunk 25.1 per cent year-on-year (YoY) in October, showing the impact of slowing global trade. The merchandise exports fell below the $30 billion mark for the first time in the last 20 months. According to a report by theEconomic Times (ET), there might be a further slowdown in merchandise shipments.

At $30 billion, the merchandise exports were down 17 per cent YoY and 16 per cent sequentially.

The data released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) showed a fall in export credit even though the bank credit saw a robust growth of 18 per cent.

“Headwinds are visible in the global trade accentuated by geopolitical tensions, rising inflation, impending recession and currency volatility…The lack of liquidity is a big challenge for exporters. Bank insistence on collateral is depriving many MSMEs of credit. The share of exports credit in the total net banking credit is constantly moving downward,” said Yogesh Gupta, eastern region chairman of the Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) to ET.

Experts said that a weak global economy may further add to the Indian exporters’ woes. The Chinese exporters have been suffering due to the Covid-19 lockdown, and they have left the space empty in global trade. Indian exporters must seize the opportunity.

“The opportunities may go away as soon as China bounces back from its zero-covid policies. All stakeholders need to understand this,” Gupta added.

The demand for Indian exports is likely to rise in 2024 as the recession will peak in 2023, and the falling commodity prices will reduce the value of exports, Bank of Baroda chief economist Madan Sabnavis told ET.

Recently, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) slashed the 2023 world GDP and world trade forecasts by 20 bps and 70 bps to 2.7 per cent and 2.5 per cent, respectively.

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